Contrary to a common belief in Pakistan’s political discourse, by-elections are not always won by parties in power.
New data released by the Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN) shows that since 2008, opposition parties and independents have won roughly one in every four by-polls.
According to FAFEN, Pakistan has held over 370 by-elections since 2008.
In 96 of these contests about 25% the winning candidate either belonged to a party not in government at the centre/province, or was an independent.
During the PPPP-led federal government (2008–2013), a total of 126 by-elections were held (37 national, 89 provincial).
Of these, 43 contests (34%) were won by opposition parties or independents.
Under the PML-N-led federal government (2013–2018), 103 by-elections took place (36 national, 67 provincial).
FAFEN notes that 27 (26%) of these were won by non-ruling parties or independents.
When PTI led the federal government (2018–2022), 63 by-polls were held (19 national, 44 provincial), with 16 seats (25%) going to candidates not representing parties in power in the federation or the relevant province.
The PDM coalition government (2022–2023) saw perhaps the most striking pattern: out of 37 by-elections (13 national, 24 provincial), 21 contests (57%) were won by opposition parties or independents, making it the period with the highest share of non-government victories.
Following General Elections 2024, PML-N leads the coalition at the centre and in Punjab, with PPPP in Sindh, PTI in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and a PML-N–PPPP coalition in Balochistan.
Since then, 43 by-elections (14 national, 29 provincial) have been held, with five seats (12%) going to parties not in government.
Overall, FAFEN’s data underlines that while ruling parties do enjoy an advantage, by-elections in Pakistan have repeatedly produced victories for opposition and independent candidates, challenging the notion that by-polls are mere formalities for governments in power.
