Pakistanis are unlikely to see relief at the pump in the first half of January, as market trends leave little room for a cut in petrol or diesel prices.
The government is expected to announce new fuel prices on December 31. Many motorists had hoped for a drop to start 2026 on a positive note, but analysts say even a modest reduction of Rs20 per litre appears unlikely.
Fuel costs affect more than just car owners. Daily commuters, ride-hailing app users, and those relying on buses and rickshaws feel the impact immediately, as fares often rise and fall with petrol and diesel prices.
Abdul Hannan, a software engineer in Islamabad, said rising fuel costs have made it hard to save. He travels nearly 60 kilometres every day between home and work.
“I spend more than Rs50,000 on petrol every month,” he said. “Public transport is limited. Buses take ages to arrive, and when they do, they are usually packed. Getting to work has become a daily struggle.”
Shahid Sultan, an Indrive driver, said passengers often blame drivers for higher fares after fuel price increases.
“People ask why fares are so high,” he said. “But fares follow petrol prices. Drivers do not benefit from expensive fuel. We only get our share after the app takes its cut.”
Global oil prices are one of the main reasons a reduction seems unlikely. West Texas Intermediate crude rose more than 3 percent in the final trading week of 2025, reaching $58.46 a barrel after a single-session gain of $1.94. Brent crude also moved higher, settling at $62.38 per barrel.
Analysts say strong US economic growth and concerns over potential supply disruptions from Venezuela and Russia have supported prices. At the same time, worries about oversupply continue to cloud the outlook.
“Although recent rebounds in oil prices and expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts initially boosted sentiment, concerns about crude oversupply could keep pressure on the market,” said Milad Azar, an analyst at XTB MENA.
In Pakistan’s last fortnightly review on December 16, the government cut the price of high-speed diesel by Rs14 per litre to Rs265.65. Petrol, however, remained unchanged at Rs263.45 per litre for the period ending December 31.
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