The US is reportedly nearing a breakthrough agreement with Iran, centred around a concise one-page memorandum aimed at ending the ongoing conflict and opening the door for deeper nuclear negotiations, Axios reported.
According to multiple sources, Washington is expecting Tehran’s response on key issues within the next two days, marking what could be the closest moment to a deal since tensions escalated.
The proposed framework includes a temporary halt on Iran’s nuclear enrichment, while the US would begin easing sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian assets. Both sides are also expected to reduce restrictions around the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, signalling a potential de-escalation in regional tensions.
However, the agreement remains conditional. Many of its terms depend on a final deal being successfully negotiated, leaving room for uncertainty. There is still a possibility that talks could collapse, leading either to renewed conflict or a prolonged state of unresolved calm.
Inside Washington, officials believe divisions within Iran’s leadership could complicate progress, with some remaining doubtful that even an initial agreement will materialise. Despite past optimism during earlier negotiation rounds, a deal has yet to be finalised.
Behind closed doors, the draft memorandum is being shaped through discussions involving key figures like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, alongside Iranian representatives through both direct and mediated channels.
If agreed, the deal would initiate a 30-day negotiation window to finalise key aspects such as reopening maritime routes, limiting Iran’s nuclear activities, and lifting US sanctions. Talks could potentially take place in Islamabad or Geneva.
One of the most debated issues remains the duration of Iran’s uranium enrichment freeze, with proposals ranging from five to twenty years. The US is also pushing for strict verification measures, including surprise inspections, and guarantees that Iran will not pursue nuclear weapons.
While the US has signalled willingness to gradually lift sanctions, the agreement could also involve Iran transferring its highly enriched uranium abroad, a point still under discussion.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged the complexity of the negotiations, emphasising that while a final agreement may take time, a clear diplomatic path forward is essential. At the same time, he expressed uncertainty about Iran’s willingness to fully commit, highlighting the fragile nature of the talks.
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