Nearly 270,000 Afghans have made their way back to their homeland from Pakistan and Iran this year, as reported by the UN on Tuesday, cautioning that the intensifying conflict in the Middle East could lead to an increase in these numbers.
The UNHCR, the refugee agency of the United Nations, indicated that 110,000 Afghans returned from Iran, while another 160,000 came back from Pakistan since the beginning of 2026.
The figures appear to have surged since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched a series of strikes against Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate with drone and missile attacks on Israeli and US targets throughout the region.
Since that time, approximately 1,700 individuals have returned daily from Iran to Afghanistan, as reported by Arafat Jamal, the UNHCR representative in Afghanistan, during a press briefing in Geneva.
UNHCR rep warns the Middle East conflict could worsen Pak Afghan war
Speaking from Islam Qala, located on the Afghan-Iranian border, he described the situation as “deceptively calm.” “The returns are organised but laden with tension and anxiety,” he remarked, expressing concern that as hostilities escalate elsewhere, “I fear there is more to come.”
“We are preparing for a significant influx of returnees.”
He emphasised that Afghanistan is “grappling with the consequences of the situation in Iran,” while conflicts have also erupted along the Afghan border with Pakistan.
He further cautioned that the new conflict in the Middle East is “compounding an already existing war on another front,” according to Jamal.
The UNHCR pointed out that the recent crises follow a period of “exceptionally high” returns to Afghanistan in recent years.
Over five million Afghans have returned from neighboring countries in the last two years, with 1.9 million returning from Iran just last year.
Jamal warned that “numerous Afghan families are now experiencing cycles of displacement: initially forced to flee Afghanistan, subsequently displaced within Iran due to conflict, and now returning once again to Afghanistan.”
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