ISLAMABAD: The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has predicted near-normal rainfall and colder nights across Pakistan over the next three to four months.
Briefing the media, Senior Disaster Risk Assessment official Dr Tayyeb Shah said cold winds from Siberia are expected to intensify winter in northern and central Pakistan by late November. Temperatures in the plains and southern regions will remain close to normal, but northern parts will face severe cold in December.
Dr Shah added that temperatures would gradually fall from late November as the Siberian High strengthens, bringing icy air to the country’s north and center. Snowfall is expected to stay slightly below normal this season, particularly in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Early light snow may appear in October, followed by consistent accumulation from mid-November to December.
He warned that reduced snow cover could affect glacier health and summer water supply in 2026, though no major water shortage is expected due to adequate monsoon storage.
Mountainous districts including Kohistan, Mansehra, Swat, Diamir, Astore, Nagar, and Neelum remain moderately prone to landslides, with risks of localized slope failures due to residual moisture and freeze-thaw cycles. Roads such as the Karakoram Highway and Neelum Valley route may face temporary closures.
The NDMA stressed continuous monitoring and early warnings to protect communities and transport routes.
In the south, parts of Balochistan and Sindh, including Chagai, Nushki, Panjgur, and Gwadar, could face mild to moderate drought due to prolonged dryness and dependence on groundwater. Authorities advised proactive planning through groundwater management and climate-smart farming to support rural livelihoods.
SMOG OUTLOOK
Smog is expected to be the most serious seasonal hazard of late 2025. From October to December, Punjab’s industrial belt, including Lahore, Faisalabad, Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, and Multan, may experience moderate to dense smog, with Air Quality Index levels crossing 400 (hazardous).
Smog formation will intensify in November and December due to temperature inversion, calm winds, and pollution buildup. Urban areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, such as Peshawar Valley, may also face low to moderate smog.
Authorities have urged strict control on emissions, a ban on crop residue burning, and public awareness drives to minimize health and transport disruptions.
