El Niño has definitively returned and is likely to intensify in 2026, with a potential for significant changes in global temperature and precipitation.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) forecasts a very strong El Niño before it peaks towards the end of the year. The agency says there is a near 100% likelihood that the phenomenon will continue through February 2027.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon in which unusually warm water accumulates in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The warming impacts the atmosphere, and therefore its impacts extend well beyond the Pacific.
What could change?
One of the most noticeable effects could be higher temperatures. The September to November 2026 WMO forecast calls for higher chances of above-normal temperatures for nearly all land areas.
There will also be changes in the pattern of rainfall. There is an increased risk of more rainfall and flooding in some regions and more drought in others. WMO also considers the following areas to be more likely to experience wetter than normal conditions: parts of East Africa, Central Asia, Southern Europe, western North America and southeastern South America.
Otherwise, dry conditions are more likely in parts of the Indian subcontinent, southern and eastern Australia, northern Europe and parts of Central America and the Caribbean.
As a result of these changes, agriculture, water resources, energy systems and public health may be impacted. They can lead to a rise in health risks in extreme heat, and a decrease in crop productivity and livelihoods in drought and excessive rainfall.
El Niño, however, does not always have the same impact throughout the globe. It is location and season-dependent and interacts with other climate patterns, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole.
The event is therefore under close observation of scientists who are trying to understand how it’s progressing. The government and communities are also being encouraged to take action on the forecast of further intensification and prepare for potential weather events through the use of early warnings and seasonal forecasts, up to late 2026.