Consumers across Pakistan may not see significant relief at the petrol pumps in the upcoming fortnightly price review, as mixed global oil trends are expected to shape uneven changes in petrol and diesel prices.
While petrol prices are likely to come down slightly, any reduction is expected to be modest and may offer little real relief to households already dealing with high transport and utility costs. In contrast, High-Speed Diesel (HSD), which plays a key role in freight, agriculture and public transport, is projected to become notably more expensive.
Working estimates based on international market movements suggest petrol prices may fall by around Rs3 to Rs4 per litre. However, diesel could see a sharp jump of nearly Rs34 to Rs35 per litre in the same review cycle.
At present, petrol is being sold at about Rs381.78 per litre nationwide, while diesel stands at Rs380.78 per litre. If current tax structures and margins remain unchanged, petrol may ease to around Rs378 per litre. Diesel, on the other hand, could rise sharply to roughly Rs415 per litre.
The reason behind this split trend lies in global oil pricing patterns. Petrol prices have softened slightly in the international market, with the cost and freight rate dipping from $113.42 to $112.51 per barrel. A stable exchange rate has also helped limit upward pressure.
Diesel tells a very different story. International rates have climbed sharply, with cost and freight values rising significantly along with higher premiums. This has pushed up the overall import cost and increased the ex-refinery price by more than Rs30 per litre.
Additional customs duty adjustments have added further pressure, pushing diesel’s base cost even higher before taxes and margins are applied.
The final impact on consumers will depend on whether the government adjusts petroleum levy, freight margins, or dealer commissions.
For now, however, the outlook suggests a familiar pattern for many households and businesses: a small change at the petrol pump, but a much heavier burden on diesel users, which could also feed into broader transport and food costs in the days ahead.
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