The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 11.5 percent on Monday, following the fourth meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) this year.
The decision comes after the central bank raised the rate by 100 basis points in its previous meeting on April 27, 2026, taking it to the current level. That move had largely matched market expectations at the time.
This time, however, market views were divided, with analysts split over whether the central bank would pause, raise, or slightly cut rates.
Mixed expectations from analysts
Topline Securities had expected the policy rate to remain unchanged. In a survey conducted by the firm, 49 percent of respondents also anticipated no change in the rate at the June 15 meeting.
At the same time, 49 percent expected an increase. Within that group, 34 percent forecast a 50 basis point hike, while 15 percent saw room for a 100 basis point rise. Only 2 percent expected a cut of up to 50 basis points.
The brokerage said uncertainty in forecasts was mainly driven by volatility in global oil prices. It also noted that recent geopolitical developments and mediation efforts had added to shifting expectations.
Cautious stance in policy debate
The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) said market expectations were broadly leaning towards a cautious hold.
It noted that while opinions remain divided between keeping rates unchanged and a small increase, easing pressure in oil prices and geopolitical risks have reduced the chance of another hike.
However, it added that inflation levels remain elevated, and risks around price stability mean a rate cut is still unlikely at this stage.
