Pakistan is on course to meet nearly all seven key targets under its ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, reducing the risk of major hurdles during the Fund’s upcoming review, Arif Habib Limited (AHL) said on Saturday.
In its latest Pakistan Economic Outlook, the brokerage said publicly available data showed that the country was likely to meet most of the Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPCs) agreed with the IMF. One data point, however, has yet to be disclosed.
“Based on publicly available data, we believe Pakistan is on track to meet nearly all seven QPCs,” AHL said.
The brokerage noted that the targets are the programme’s main benchmarks. Meeting them would therefore support a smooth review, with limited chances of Pakistan needing waivers or facing major obstacles.
An IMF staff mission is expected to visit Pakistan next month for the fourth review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the second review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
The IMF’s Executive Board completed the previous review in May and approved around $1.1 billion under the EFF and $220 million under the RSF. Total disbursements under the two programmes have since reached about $4.8 billion.
AHL said the importance of the next review goes beyond the funds Pakistan is seeking.
The review will be an opportunity for the country to show that recent economic improvements are backed by steady reforms. It will also be the first full IMF review since Moody’s and S&P upgraded Pakistan’s credit ratings and the country entered the Panda Bond market.
“A clean review would reinforce the view that improving credit ratings and market access are reflecting genuine progress in reforms,” the brokerage said.
However, fiscal performance remains a concern. The Federal Board of Revenue missed its FY26 tax collection target by Rs1.1 trillion against the original goal of Rs14.1 trillion.
AHL warned that another major shortfall could put pressure on the government’s FY27 fiscal plans. The brokerage expects the fiscal deficit to widen to 3.9 percent of GDP in FY27 from 2.6 percent in FY26, although it sees the primary surplus remaining positive at 2 percent of GDP.
During the upcoming review, the IMF is expected to assess Pakistan’s economic performance from January to June 2026, including tax collection, energy sector reforms and progress on privatisation.
A successful review could unlock about $1 billion under the EFF and another $200 million under the RSF, subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board.