Pakistan’s electricity generation declined sharply in April 2026, reflecting a mix of fuel supply shocks, weaker demand, and a growing shift towards off-grid solar systems.
Total power generation fell 9.6 percent year-on-year to 9,499 GWh, compared with 10,513 GWh in the same month last year. The monthly decline came even though the broader trend for FY26 so far remains slightly positive. Over the first ten months, total generation reached 102,630 GWh, up 2 percent from the same period a year earlier.
On a month-on-month basis, output still managed a 6.3 percent rise, suggesting some recovery linked to seasonal demand patterns, according to data compiled by Arif Habib Limited.
The sharpest disruption came from RLNG-based power plants. Their output plunged 82.4 percent year-on-year to just 380 GWh. The fall was largely driven by a shortage of LNG cargoes, with no shipments arriving in April against six expected deliveries. The shortfall has been linked to supply disruptions amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
To bridge the gap, the power system shifted towards more expensive and less efficient fuels. Fuel oil-based generation rose nearly six times to 486 GWh, while high-speed diesel units were also brought online for the first time since January 2024, although their share remained minimal. Imported coal also picked up pace, rising 1.3 times to 1,343 GWh, supported mainly by major plants including CPHGC and LEPCL.
This fuel switch came at a cost. The average fuel cost for April climbed to Rs9.97 per KWh, above the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority’s reference rate of Rs8.25 per KWh. As a result, distribution companies have sought a positive fuel cost adjustment of Rs1.73 per KWh, which is expected to be passed on to consumers.
Not all sources declined. Nuclear generation rose 11.4 percent to 2,097 GWh, supported by higher output from K-3. Hydel power, however, dropped 9.8 percent to 2,079 GWh due to lower water availability and reduced output from WAPDA plants.
What makes the latest figures more concerning is that generation stayed below reference levels despite lower industrial tariffs, incentive schemes, and broader economic activity, with large-scale manufacturing rising 6.5 percent over nine months.
Analysts attribute the gap to restrained consumption, load shedding linked to LNG shortages, and the rapid expansion of rooftop solar reducing reliance on the national grid.
