Pakistanis hoping for cheaper petrol may have to wait a little longer, even as global oil prices start to come down.
Crude oil prices fell on Monday after major economies moved to add more oil to the global market. But with Brent crude still above $100 a barrel, analysts say there is little room for a major drop in petrol and diesel prices in Pakistan for now.
Brent crude fell 66 cents, or 0.65 percent, to $101.59 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped 95 cents, or 1.03 percent, to $90.12 a barrel.
The fall came after the Group of Seven countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and diesel from emergency reserves. The move is aimed at easing fears of an oil shortage caused by the war in the Middle East.
More oil is also coming out of the region. Shipping data showed that Middle Eastern crude exports rose above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September.
That has helped calm the market, although risks remain.
“The G7 decision to tap strategic reserves is taking some of the immediate supply anxiety out of the price,” said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade.
He added that Saudi oil exports appeared to be moving closer to pre-war levels, although shipments were still facing higher costs and less efficient routes.
For Pakistan, this means any relief at the pump is likely to be gradual rather than a sharp price cut.
Global oil prices remain under pressure from the conflict in the Gulf. The Houthis said on Monday that they had attacked Saudi Aramco sites in Riyadh and the Khurais area with missiles and drones. Saudi Arabia has not confirmed the claims.
Saudi oil giant Aramco has also cut its November crude prices for Asian buyers to their lowest level in six years, showing that some parts of the market are already adjusting to changing supply conditions.
Still, Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel as attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf add to concerns about oil supplies.
OPEC+ has also delayed a review that was expected to help determine members’ oil output quotas for 2027. The war has disrupted plans to expand production capacity in several Middle Eastern countries, making future supply harder to predict.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is also planning to step up attacks on Russian oil refineries, adding another risk to the global oil market.
For Pakistani consumers, the key factor will be whether crude prices keep falling in the coming days. If the decline continues and lasts long enough, petrol and diesel prices in Pakistan could eventually get some relief.
For now, however, a major reduction at fuel stations looks unlikely.